ЮАР - Доверие потребителей

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa fell to -7 in the third quarter of 2019 from 5 in the previous three months. It is the lowest reading since the last quarter of 2017, signalling a further deterioration in consumers' willingness to spend as household budgets are increasingly being strained by rising unemployment, slow wage growth, high tax rates, and soaring electricity prices.

The South Africa consumer confidence index rose to 5 in the second quarter of 2019 from 2 in the previous quarter, boosted by recent elections and the stabilisation of the country's power supply which likely offset substantial increases in fuels as well as growing unemployment. Still, "household budgets were expected to remain constrained by higher personal income taxes, sharp fuel and electricity price hikes and rising unemployment rates", FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said.

The South Africa consumer confidence index decreased further to 2 in the first quarter of 2019 from 7 in the previous quarter. It is the lowest reading since Q4 2017 and far below the record high of 26 when the President Ramaphosa took office a year ago, as expectations of an economic recovery in the next twelve months faded. "The shock implementation of stage 4 load-shedding by Eskom during February and March no doubt had a very detrimental impact on the South African economy and it is therefore not surprising that consumers are becoming especially concerned about our economic prospects," FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said. Other factors could have contributed including prolonged labour strikes, a fall in the rand exchange rate, sharp fuel price hikes and further increases in personal income taxes announced in the February national budget, Matikinca-Ngwenya added.

The South Africa consumer confidence index held steady at 7 in the fourth quarter of 2018, matching the reading in the previous quarter. Still, the latest figure stays far above the depressed levels recorded in the final years of former President Zuma's regime (2015-2017) when it ranged between readings of -3 and -15. The survey indicates that "consumers are fairly optimistic that the outlook of the SA economy and their household finances will improve over the next 12 months", FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said. Actually, the sharp drop in fuel prices during December and January must give some budgetary relief for consumers and simultaneously reduce the pressure to hike interest rates amid rising inflation.