Германия - Индекс экономических настроений ZEW

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 12.8 points from the previous month to 10.7 in December 2019, the highest level since February 2018 and well above market expectations of 0.3, on hopes that German exports and private consumption will develop better than previously thought. Stronger than expected exports data, alongside relatively robust economic growth in the EU in the third quarter and a stable German labour market were enough to offset weak figures for industrial production and incoming orders for October. The assessment of the economic situation also improved, rising by 4.8 points to -19.9.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 20.7 points from a month earlier to -2.1 in November 2019, the highest since May and easily beating market expectations of -13. “There is growing hope that the international economic policy environment will improve in the near future, which explains the sharp rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in November. In the meantime, the chances for a agreement between Great Britain and the EU and thus for a regulated withdrawal of Great Britain have noticeably increased. Punitive tariffs on car imports from the EU to the United States are also less likely than the projections a few weeks ago. An agreement in the trade conflict between the USA and China is appearing more likely too,” commented ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach. Also, the assessment of the economic situation in the country improved slightly by 0.6 points to -24.7.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany fell 0.3 points from a month earlier to -22.8 in October 2019 and compared with market consensus of -27, as financial market experts continue to expect a further deterioration of the German economy. Additionally, the most recent trade agreement between the US and China does not seem to diminish economic scepticism. Meantime, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 5.4 points to a current reading of -25.3, below forecast of -26 and reaching its lowest since April 2010.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 21.6 points from a month earlier to -22.5 in September 2019, recovering from its lowest level since December 2011 and easily beating market expectations of -37.0, as the rather strong fears that financial experts had in the previous month regarding a further intensification of the US-China trade conflict did not come true. In addition, hopes that a no deal Brexit can be avoided and the ECB's monetary policy stimulus also supported sentiment. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 6.4 points to -19.9 in September, the lowest since May 2010.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany plunged 19.6 points from a month earlier to -44.1 in August 2019, the lowest reading since December 2011 and below market expectations of -28.5. The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China, the risk of competitive devaluations, and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit place additional pressure on the already weak economic growth. This will most likely put a further strain on the development of German exports and industrial production. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened considerably by 12.4 points to -13.5 in August.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany fell 3.4 points from a month earlier to -24.5 in July 2019, the lowest reading since last October and below market expectations of -22.3. The continued negative trend in incoming orders in the German industry is likely to have reinforced the financial market experts’ pessimistic sentiment, while the Iran conflict and the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China are weighing on the global economic outlook. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 8.9 points to a current reading of -1.1.