Americas

In the US, several Federal Reserve officials are also due to speak, while earnings from PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines will be closely watched. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinized for further clues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The central bank raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, with Chair Kevin Warsh adopting a more hawkish tone over inflationary pressures. However, softer-than-expected PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls, alongside more dovish remarks from policymakers have led markets to largely abandon bets on a rate increase at the next meeting in late October. On the data front, the ISM Services PMI is expected to show a stronger expansion in US services activity, potentially the fastest since February. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is likely to show morale remaining near record lows amid cost-of-living concerns. US trade data are also expected to show a wider deficit in August as imports surged while exports rose at a slower pace. Other key economic indicators to follow include final S&P Global Services PMI, consumer credit change and wholesale inventories. Elsewhere, attention will turn to Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday. Leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to narrowly lead the first round, but polls suggest he is unlikely to secure the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Brazil will also release September inflation and S&P Global Services PMI data, while Canada will publish employment figures, trade data and the Ivey PMI. Mexico is due to release inflation and consumer confidence data.

New York, NY, US

Europe

The European Central Bank will publish the accounts from its latest monetary policy meeting. The bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, marking its second increase since the US-Iran war began. In Germany, industrial production is expected to rebound, although factory orders may decline after three consecutive months of growth. Trade figures are expected to point to a slightly narrower $19.2 billion surplus. Industrial output figures are also due from France, Italy and Turkey, while Euro area retail sales are forecast to recover in August following July’s decline. Producer prices for the Eurozone are expected to show a bigger 1.9% increase in August. Services PMI data for Spain and Italy will also provide further insight into sector activity after preliminary readings indicated strengthening across several major economies. The UK calendar is relatively light, featuring the Lloyds house price index, the RICS house price balance and construction PMI. In Turkey, monthly inflation is expected to reach 2.3%, taking the annual rate to 30.3%, its lowest since November 2021. Poland’s central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive meeting. Other releases include trade balances for Germany, France and Turkey, Swiss unemployment and consumer sentiment, and Russian inflation.

Frankfurt, Germany

Asia Pacific

In China, markets will remain closed for the Golden Week holiday through October 7, with no major economic releases scheduled for next week. In Japan, investors will monitor a range of economic reports, including August wages, set to have increased at a slower 3.7%, leading indexes, current account, household spending data, as well as September consumer confidence, expected to point to a small downtick, and machine tool orders, followed by the Reuters Tankan index for October. In India, the Reserve Bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% after keeping rates unchanged since December, as higher fuel and food prices are expected to push inflation higher in the fourth quarter. In Australia, key releases include consumer confidence, job advertisements, the industry index and consumer inflation expectations. Elsewhere in the region, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan are due to report inflation data, with Taiwan also releasing trade figures. Unemployment data are expected from the Philippines and Malaysia while Singapore and Hong Kong are scheduled to release PMI reports.

Tokyo, Japan